Séminaire

  Les ventes internationales entre un acheteur et un vendeur sont souvent associées à une phase de transport maritime, longue, couteuse et risquée. Ce type de ventes est régi par des classes de contrats - les Incoterms - qui définissent les rôles et responsabilités de chaque agent. Nous montrons comment ces classes de contrat sont transposables à l’environnement des smart contracts. Ces contrats automatisés inscrits dans la blockchain permettent de contrôler de manière simple et flexible différents risques inhérents à cet

environnement. Nous identifions ainsi une séquence adéquate de mises sous séquestre qui limite, en particulier, les risques de liquidité et de transport associés `a ce type de transactions, et qui est facilement implémentable `a l’intérieur d’un smart contract dédié.

We present a comprehensive analysis of monetary policy in South Africa by employing a state-of-the-art high-frequency identification. Using future contracts, we extract three monetary policy surprises affecting the short-, mid-, and long-end of the yield curve. We report three main results from an event study and an identified VAR. First, conventional monetary policy works in a standard manner in a small open emerging market, with tightenings generating contractionary effects on real, nominal, and financial variables. Second, the exogenous shocks to the longer maturities produce effects compatible with risk premia shocks. Third, monetary surprises represent a relevant share of policy rate decisions, indicating that policymakers always surprise market participants. Furthermore, surprises correlate with the central bank forecasts, as well as global shocks. These findings point to markets having uncertainty regarding both the state of the economy and the reaction function of the bank.

Ce jeudi 15 décembre, le séminaire du LERN accueillera Leonor Modesto, de l'Université Catholique du Portugal, qui présentera l'article "Imperfect competition in the banking sector and economic instability", co-écrit avec Francesco Carlo et Teresa Lloyd-Braga.


 Le résume de l'article est le suivant : 

"The literature identifies good and bad economic effects of bank competition, usually linked to the lower/higher degree of ‘implicit’ credit rationing or higher/lower risk of bank failure.  In this work we highlight a different economic effect of (im)perfect competitionin the banking sector, namely its influence on fluctuations in banking activity and output linked to autonomous volatility in self-fulfilling expectations. 
We  consider  an  OLG  model  with  two  types  of  households:   lenders  who  consume and  work  when  young  and  save  through  bank  deposits  to  finance  consumption  in  old age;  and  entrepreneurs  who  ask  for  a  bank  loan  to  finance  current  consumption  andto  invest  in  a  productive  project  that  will  pay  for  their  second  period  consumption. Banks pay a fee to have a license to operate, face a reserve requirement rate fixed by the monetary authority and solve a profits maximation problem every period under Cournot competition with free entry and exit. We find that more competition in the banking sector facilitates  the  emergence  of  local  indeterminacy  and  sunspots  fluctuations,  promoting therefore macroeconomic instability"

Le séminaire prendra place en salle c 216 à partir de 12h30. Un lien zoom vous sera communiqué prochainement pour celles et ceux souhaitant suivre le séminaire à distance.

This paper primarily investigates the effects of a public sector wage shock using a DSGE model with search and matching frictions in a heterogeneous labour market composed of skilled and unskilled workers. The model is parametrized to reflect the South African labour market. The findings show that a public sector wage shock mainly crowds out private skilled labour which private firms substitute with unskilled workers. Overall unemployment increases in the short term as additional skilled workers queue for public jobs. Given unions high bargaining power, the public wage premium further applies upward pressures on private sector wages, which in turn contributes to rigidities in wages and subsequently to labour shedding in the private sector when economic activity is soft.

Bonjour,

Le premier séminaire du LERN pour l'année 2022-2023 aura lieu le 20 octobre à 12h30.
Titre : Constant Debt-to-GDP Policy and Aggregate (In)-stability
Salle : C-216

Dans ce travail, nous analysons les effets de la crise du Covid-19 sur les marchés immobiliers français. Il s’agit de vérifier dans quelle mesure la demande résidentielle des ménages a été impactée par cette crise et par l’accroissement du télétravail qui en a résulté. A partir de données sur les transactions immobilières entre 2016 et 2021, nous regardons l’évolution des prix avant et après la crise. Deux niveaux d’analyse sont retenus. D’abord, l’évolution des prix entre les communes d’une même aire urbaine est étudiée. Nous montrons que les communes les moins denses et les plus éloignées du centre de l’aire urbaine sont aussi celles où les prix ont le plus augmenté. Cela témoigne d’une volonté des ménages de s’orienter vers des biens plus spacieux en périphérie et loin du cœur des villes. Ensuite, l’évolution des prix entre les aires urbaines est étudiée. Les résultats montrent, comme le laisse présager les théories de l’économie urbaine, qu’un changement de dynamique territoriale est survenue en faveur des agglomérations initialement les moins productives.

« This paper explores how pro-environmental behavior, illustrated with organic food consumption, is related to trust in the information provided by environmental NGOs (ENGOs) on the environmental impacts of products. Using data from an OECD survey of about 12,000 individuals in 11 countries and controlling for the endogeneity of trust in ENGOs as a predictor of organic food consumption, we show that the share of organic labeled products in respondents’ spending on fresh fruit and vegetables is significantly and positively related to trust in ENGOs. The higher the trust in the information provided by ENGOs, the higher the share of organic food consumed. Our results suggest that ENGOs play a very important role in shaping pro-environmental behavior » .
 

We propose a characterization of dynamic completeness in the presence of market frictions taking the form of bid{ask spreads. We show that bid-ask spreads do not necessarily result in dynamically incomplete markets. In fact, in some cases, if there was no bid-ask spread then markets would be dynamically incomplete. Potential applications of the results of this article concern the regulation of securities pricing, in particular the size of acceptable bid-ask spreads.